Surviving our objectives

Let’s take a look at objectives and circumstances.

At a gaming table, it’s been seven flips of the coin with each result producing “heads”. The eighth flip again produces another “head” as did the subsequent ninth. So, what’s your bet for the tenth toss? Or perhaps we can even go to the 19th flip, each producing “head”. What will the 20th flip be?

Many would tell you that statistically, it’ll be time for “tails” since it’s already due.

But is it, really?

No matter how many times you flip the coin, the chances of it being “head” or “tail” stands at 50% for every flip. In addition, the “history” of its result says little and have absolutely no bearing on subsequent tosses. See, unlike card games, the mathematical averages do not tilt in any way since there are no cards to “count off” on (Yes, hence the term card counting…).

The 100th flip of the coin can still yield “head” over “tail”.

So, what on earth am I driving at with all these?

It has to do very much with objectives and realizing them. See, many of us are given into our emotions, more vividly so especially at the gambling table where a winning streak or a losing streak produces instant theories and “mathematical” formulations as to how we would play the next hand to win. However, the intensity of the moment, the thrill and spill of the moment often than not produces very twisted and truly un-mathematical ideas, that when analyzed objectively shows huge flaws.

No, this is not a primer for gambling. Again, what I would like to draw our attention to, is that of setting our objectives and going about realizing them and not be detracted from seemingly increased or decreased odds that come our way. We have to be able to decipher odds that have a basis for “history” and those that don’t, just like coin flipping and card counting.

If our goal is to own a business, to buy a property, or even to run for public office, just remember that at each ground you start off on, it’s always level – yielding a 50% chance at each step of the way. We ought not to let things that look and feel like losing streaks be interpreted as such. The whole point is to keep our eyes focused on the objective and not the circumstances.

“But I’m a perpetual failure,” you may say? Well, have a chronological look at the life of a typical failure:

1831 - Lost his job Failed
1832 - Defeated in run for Illinois State Legislature Failed
1833 - Failed in business Failed
1834 - Elected to Illinois State Legislature Success
1835 - Sweetheart died Failed
1836 - Had nervous breakdown Failed
1838 - Defeated in run for Illinois House Speaker Failed
1843 - Defeated in run for nomination for U.S. Congress Failed
1846 - Elected to Congress Success
1848 - Lost re-nomination Failed
1849 - Rejected for land officer position Failed
1854 - Defeated in run for U.S. Senate Failed
1856 - Defeated in run for nomination for Vice President Failed
1858 - Again defeated in run for U.S. Senate Failed
1860 - Elected President Success

Yes, that’s none other than Abraham Lincoln, the 16th President of the United States, and one of the most prolific ones to ever hold the Office. So, you’ve got to decide whether to go after your objectives on a 50% level playing field or start believing in weird math.